Whither The Pro-Pals A Year From Now?

Whither the pro-Pals a year from now?

I feel that "fandom as politics" most adequately covers the behavior of pro-Palestinians on Tumblr, and being an Old Hand At Fandom, this gives me some impressions on what the future holds. I know this is a matter of great concern for those of us on Tumblr who are their favorite targets.

My estimates are not scientific, and are based on experience in seeing the rise and fall of many fandoms. I am not psychic and make no guarantees.

The Old Guard: The smallest contingent of pro-Palestinian activists will be permanently, irrevocably radicalized by propaganda, and they will not go back. Truthfully, there is nowhere for them to go. They have burned all of their online goodwill invested in this fandom, and as the rest fall away, they will rage at their own allies, burning those bridges as well. These people are just as hateful and insufferable IRL as they are online, so they will know nobody who isn't also pro-Pal. They will remain behind in the fandom. When it later repopularizes as Tumblr rediscovers the fandom due to future content being released in the form of another war, the Old Guard will snark and brag about how they carried the torch while everybody else abandoned the fandom of The Great Cause. The Old Guard will constitute the BNFs of the pro-Pal fandom and their closest friends, at most 10% of the current fandom.

The Fond Recollectors: A lack of new, shiny, emotionally-evocative content for the pro-Pal fandom will drop it, the same as how many fandom members abandon a fandom once it is cancelled or after endless delays for new material. These folks will not think of their time in the pro-Pal fandom as wasted. They will look back on this time of trauma, war, and upheaval as one of the most exhilarating and joyful times of their lives. They will generally act as though they weren't part of the fandom, but when they find people who used to be in the fandom, it will be like finding somebody who shares a fandom you used to adore. They will whisper, with smirking conspiratorialism, of how one time they got a Jewish--uh, Zionist--person to deactivate their Tumblr account. They will confess among one another how many times they sent "kys" messages to Zionists, and giggle. It will be like ex-Johnlockers lol'ing among themselves about having stalked the actors IRL. If the fandom gets new content in the form of a war, then the Fond Recollectors will rejoin with glee. They will accept the Old Guard's hostility ("Where were you all this time?") as their just punishment. Otherwise, Fond Recollectors will be mid-grade antisemitic in whatever new political or media fandoms they join. They will constitute roughly 30% of the current pro-Pal fandom, and will mostly be composed of folks who post extremely prolifically but are not currently BNFs.

The Shamefaced Ex-Fans: Whether we like it or not, most folks get caught up in a fandom cycle due to hype from friends and socmed pressure. This creates a peak of interest which is followed by burnout. A person in this category engaged constantly and thoughtlessly with pro-Palestinian fandom content for hours every day, yet never engaged with purpose or by creating transformative works. Once the fandom fails to produce enough new content, they will look around, dazed, and wonder what the hell they even liked about it in the first place. Now out of the hype cycle, Ex-Fans will be able to look more critically at their behavior. They will not recognize their Jew-hate, but they will recognize the silliness of a lot of their behavior. "Gosh, I can't believe I thought reblogging on Tumblr would end a war" will take the place of phrases like "... would make that ship become canon" in their lexicon. They will look back at this time with embarrassment; again, not because they understand the harm they have done, but because they understand it's "cringe" to care about stuff that's not pluperfect and doesn't achieve the stated goal. They will be the least apparently-antisemitic and the most likely to make friends with Jewish people online, because they will change their names and will not admit what they were doing during the Hamas/Israel war. If the pro-Pal fandom gets new content in the future--again, in the form of a new war--the Ex-Fans will primarily fall silent. They will be overwhelmed by shame (not guilt, and not responsibility). They will not rejoin unless dragged into it, but they will not speak out to support Jewish people. They will constitute roughly 60% of the current fandom.

These are bleak estimates, because a newly revitalized pro-Pal fandom will not need the Shamefaced Ex-Fans. The core of the fandom, the Old Guard and the Fond Recollectors, will do what all passionate cores of fandoms do in these situations: recruit. And while most of these recruits are destined to become Ex-Fans in the far future, many will join the other two categories, being partially or permanently radicalized into a movement of antisemitism.

In a sense, what we are seeing is what Tumblr would have been like if Moffat had said "Johnlock will never be canon, and it's all because of the Jews".

Shabbat shalom, y'all

And in case you're busy tomorrow night, shavua tov!

here are my kitties!!! the black one is Jinx, the tuxedo is Gemini! they usually tend to ignore each other but this third photo was taken on a day where Jinx wanted to be friends, very unlike her usual self!

Sephardic Jewish family in Turkey, Lithograph from Paris, 1847

queers who were raised christian, got religious trauma, then decided to be a jew rise up