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How Jaster Can Still Win: A Meta Analysis on the History of Mandalore
Star Wars isn't exactly known for having a clear-cut, coherent narrative. With the Expanded Universe delegated to Legends, many fans (including myself) are left wondering at the history that had been the foundation of worldbuilding in fandom for so long. Especially with the new content in The Mandalorian, which seems to contradict everything Legends, The Clone Wars, and even Rebels has told us about Mandalorians. This was only somewhat remedied when the show re-introduced us to Bo-Katan Kryze, who dismissed Din Djarin's Tribe as "religious zealots who broke away from Mandalorian society".
I'm going to attempt to put together what information we have been given in the new canon into a coherent narrative, but I may use some information from Legends to fill in missing pieces, or to explain changes that have been made. Also, keep in mind that while some of this is headcanon, everything has at least a basis in canon.
Part 1: The Mandalorian Civil Wars and the Battle of Galidraan
In Legends, the Mandalorian Civil Wars took place from 60 BBY-44 BBY. They were fought between Tor Vizsla's Kyr'tsad (Death Watch) and Jaster Mereel's Haat Mando'ade (True Mandalorians).
The Civil Wars have been confirmed in canon when Boba Fett tells Din Djarin that his father, Jango Fett, fought in them, but that is the only information we are given. Furthermore, with the symbol of Jaster Mereel making an appearance on Boba Fett's armor, as well as tying his name to the Fetts, we know that he does exist.
In Legends, 44 BBY sees the Battle of Galidraan, a conflict in which the Republic and the Jedi were tricked into attacking the True Mandalorians, now led by Jango Fett. The Jedi force was diminished by half, with Fett himself killing six Jedi with his bare hands, but the True Mandalorians were massacred, with Fett being the only survivor. The Jedi were led into this battle by Jedi Master Dooku and his Padawan Komari Vosa. The discovery of the treachery became one of Dooku's reasons for leaving the Jedi Order twelve years after the battle.
However, with the addition of the audiobook Dooku: Jedi Lost to canon, this cannot have been the case. Qui-Gon Jinn was confirmed to be Dooku's final Padawan, erasing Komari Vosa from the story. Furthermore, Dooku leaves the Jedi in 42 BBY after overthrowing his brother Rumil and accepting the title of Count of Serenno.
Therefore, the Civil Wars must have ended in another way. The Official Star Wars Fact File says that the war occurred 20 years before the Clone Wars, which would put it around 42 BBY (this means no Korkie Kenobi, sorry guys). The war as we know it in canon was mainly between the pacifist New Mandalorians and the "martial traditionalists", which were the precursors to Death Watch. However, a third group also emerged from the ashes of the war. The "Old Mandalorians", who seem to have a similar philosophy to that of the True Mandalorians from Legends. New canon erases the True Mandalorians, but since we know Jango to have fought in the war, it could be that he was on the side of the martial traditionalists, but refused to take part in the Death Watch movement afterwards.
Interestingly, Tor Vizsla has not made his way into the new canon. Therefore, it is possible that the martial traditionalists were actually led by Jaster Mereel himself.
Part 2: Din Djarin and the Children of the Watch
Many have speculated about where Djarin's Tribe came from, and The Mandalorian is a show that excels at appearing that they are doing lots of worldbuilding while really not worldbuilding at all.
It is common fanon that the Tribe holds to the Resol'nare (Six Actions) from the Legends lore of ancient Mandalore. As time went on, the Resol'nare was reformed several times, most notably by Jaster Mereel when he created the Supercommando Codex, as Mandalore became less religious. This is mostly due to the fact that they never take off their helmets, and one of the tenets of the Resol'nare is to wear traditional armor. However, covering one's face is not mentioned, so it's really just speculation.
However, there is another tenet of the Resol'nare that I think would tie in the Tribe to one of the already established Mandalorian factions.
When called upon by the Mand'alor, rally to their cause.
Traditionally, the Mand'alor is whoever has the Darksaber. But when the renegade Sith Lord Maul killed Pre Vizsla in single combat, Bo-Katan and some members of Death Watch refused to accept him as the Mand'alor. However, many Mandalorians followed Maul's rule.
Bo-Katan is obviously biased when she calls the Children of the Watch "religious zealots", but from her point of view, the Mandalorians who followed Maul did so blindly, even willing to swear loyalty to an offworlder simply because he had the Darksaber.
Furthermore, the Tribe is called "Children of the Watch", seemingly linking it to the Death Watch movement. However, Bo-Katan is the only one that refers to them this way, with Djarin himself being confused when she says it. This could be because he was taken in near the end of the Clone Wars, when Death Watch would have been dissolved. Furthermore, the Armorer decorates her helmet with spikes similar to those of Gar Saxon and his supercommandos that followed Maul, and the eye shape of the helmet suggests that she could have been a former Nite Owl.
It has also been theorized that the Tribe is an offshoot of the True Mandalorians, who would in new canon be the Old Mandalorians. However, this was a group separate from Death Watch who found their ideas reprehensible. When Djarin was rescued from the attack on Aq Vetina in 19 BBY, it was by a Mandalorian with the shriekhawk symbol of Death Watch painted on his armor. Therefore, they could not be part of the Old Mandalorians.
After the Siege of Mandalore, many of Maul's supercommandos were captured, but it's very possible that they escaped or were freed during the Imperial occupation of Mandalore. This group would then be hunted by not only the Empire, but the remaining members of Death Watch as well. This could explain their reason for secrecy, and why they were so far from Mandalorian space instead of working to reclaim Mandalore. It would also explain why Bo-Katan, Koska Reeves, and Axe Woves seemed dismayed by the revelation that Djarin was "one of them". Their factions had fought against one another.
Ironically, despite having roots in Death Watch, Djarin's covert does seem to have a code of honor similar to that of the True Mandalorians, always watching out for one another, staying true to one's word, not killing unless necessary, and protecting the foundlings at all costs. This is what Boba Fett saw in him when he agreed to help Din get Grogu back. He saw what Mandalorians should be; his grandfather's true legacy.