2024 US Presidential Election - Tumblr Posts
It also should be said every incumbent US president in the last century that both ran for reelection and didn't have a severely shit economy has won reelection. Every. Single. One.
That can't be said for every governing party though with losses of Stevenson to Eisenhower or Nixon to Kennedy or Humphrey to Nixon or Gore to Bush Jr or Clinton to Trump.
Right now Biden is the best shot to beat Trump simply because of incumbency advantage. There simply is no severely shit economy like the Great Depression that killed Hoover or Stagflation that killed Carter or 90s recession that killed Bush Senior or COVID recession that killed Trump that could even vaguely justify replacing Biden (though severely bad economies kill non-incumbents even worse).
Plain and simple most US presidential elections are just general approval/disapproval votes of the governing party with exceptions mainly being for incredibly popular challengers challenging a non-incumbent. With most Democrats doing unusually well in polls since Dobbs and most times performing in elections over 5 percentage points better that the polls and 10 points over the previous elections pretending Biden being a couple points down in the polls will kill him in a way it just hasn't for any other Democrat is insane.
It gets even less logical if we factor in Democrats spending way more than Republicans on this election. 90% of the time money wins and when it loses it's almost always to incredibly well run grassroots campaigns which Trump's just isn't. Or the fact the more contested primaries a candidate has the more likely they are to lose and well...
Which one looks more contested?
If you want to look at swing state results:
That's an average of 10 points less for Trump vs Biden as well as over 10 points more for the largest Trump challenger vs largest Biden challenger.
So please how in the world is Biden having an off debate (which very few undecided but will vote voters watch) is justification to kill all of the incumbency, money, and lack of primary challenger advantage Democrats have worked so hard to accrue this election season? Lichtman who's predicted all but one of the previous 10 elections has already came out saying pulling Biden will wreck Democrats chances of beating Trump. Biden isn't perfect but he's the best shot at defeating Trump that we have in November so please can it with the mental decline argument. If that was enough to kill Biden, it would have killed Trump too.
It's so inspiring to see people standing up against the evils of fascism, anger, vanity, hatred, contempt and offence! It's so encouraging to see that everyone with a little sense is coming together to say that the red-haired old excited man belongs on the golf course, rather than in the White House.
mod
Well, we would send him to therapy, but it would be a waste of money, an open institution called a golf club would suffice.
He Can See The End
I'm sorry, but I'm just too fucking old to pretend that the presidential ticket of "Person who performed some of the first gay marriages in her state while it was still federally illegal" and "governor who created a trans refuge state while other states were making it illegal to transition" is somehow 'jUsT aS bAd foR QuEer pEopLe' as the ticket promising to reverse marriage equality and make trans healthcare next to impossible.
That is such a monumentally stupid opinion that I'm going to have a hard time believing that you're actually that stupid, and I'll probably just assume you're malicious.