Minecraft Speedrun - Tumblr Posts

gonna help this reach more people!! again, like they said, don’t debate me, i’m aware of where i stand and that stance may or may not change depending on the rebuttal dream will release. this is just super important and i know a lot of people don’t have reddit :)

haven’t seen this on here so i just thought i’d drop it in case anyone hadn’t seen his response abt the drama.

don’t debate in the notes on this post please, i’m just sharing his public statement for the purpose of being informative

okay so i’ve been in the speedrunning discord for a few weeks now, and one thing i’ve taken away from it is that pretty much everyone in there seems to hate dream. this obviously means that when the data was put out, everyone there was super happy, so i didn’t really chat that much because i knew if i even tried to state my opinion, i would be immediately yelled at for being a “dream stannie” and my opinion would be completely disregarded.

now i’ve mentioned this before, i’m shit at math. therefore i feel the only possible way for me to test dream’s pearl luck is to trade the exact amount of gold he did to count the amount of pearl trades i receive, but do several sets of those trades to make sure i’m not just using one sample (which would take me hours probably) and then kill the exact amount of blazes he did accounting for the amount he killed with a looting sword, and do that a few times just to see how much an active sample would change the numbers as presented by the document.

like i can’t do the shit the verifiers did because i don’t understand stats, but maybe accounting for the rng by doing the trades myself will show a different probability than what their stream samples have shown? idk how the math works so maybe we’d end up with the same shit, but at least i’d know for sure then

i’m not decided if i’ll actually do this because it’d take a lot of time, but i might if i find the time to dedicate the hours to. if i did do it i’d probably turn off my optifine too, just to make sure i didn’t mess with any of the mob spawn stuff that i recently learned it messed with XD. maybe i’ll record it, or like livestream the hours it’ll take me lmfao, might be worth it tbh

maybe i’d get another friend to help me or something, but that’s literally the only way i think i could conceivably check the statistics because i don’t understand the math that they used 😭

I was specifically referring to the post you made saying that you're in the speedrunning Discord and the people there don't like Dream. I'm in it as well (I don't talk there though) and I very much agree that they don't like him. Tbh I don't have a super super solid opinion yet, but I lean towards defending him because I don't think there is enough info to concretely say he cheated. Kinda an innocent until proven guilty thing I guess.

i agree! i think people jumped on the information way too quick. the evidence looks damning because of the numbers, but those numbers were put forward by the opposite “side” to dream (calling them sides purely based on the clear division between groups).

i think it’s important to wait for whatever dream puts out because he’ll either prove himself right and the mods wrong, or vice versa. i can’t say anything in the actual math because i’m shit at math, but i definitely know that we shouldn’t only be considering data from one source, and should wait to see what other data will surface with dream’s rebuttal.

the numbers by the mods could be completely right or wrong, the thing is that we don’t know, and everyone just assumed the numbers were absolutely and irrevocably correct.

math can be wrong sometimes, (this next part is not including the mods and verifiers who worked on the investigation, obviously they know the statistics and math, but mistakes can happen which is why we always check and take from more than one source!) but the people saying it’s right often don’t know the math going behind stats and are simply agreeing because stats hold such a high damnability to a situation.

we need to sit on this one because we don’t actually know, but innocent until proven guilty is very important, and when i only have one side of the story, i cannot make an informed and objective choice in the debate :)

Yeah, I'm really interested to see what Dreams response is. I think it's interesting that he's said that he is planning on hiring actual mathematicians. If that actually happens I think it'll be interesting what they find. Also, I'm not entirely sure who did the math for the speedrun verification team, at first it seemed like they did it themselves but they've since said that "verifiers hold no part in the Dream investigation."

Honestly my biggest problem with the investigation though still has nothing to do with the numbers; no other 16th place run would be treated like this and regardless of the result I think the investigation was brought on by the speedrun community not liking Dream. (Although I also don't like the argument that being too lucky means cheating, largely because then there needs to be a way to decide if someone is cheating vs. just getting lucky)

i’m definitely excited for what he plans, as in the discord he did say he would have irrevocable evidence! if that’s true, hopefully this can be all resolved like adults.

on the topic of it being a 16th place run, they started this investigation when it was number 5 on the leaderboards, so i can see why they’d investigate it when the pearl drops were dropped into conversation (however because of the bias i’ve seen in the discord from general dislike of dream it’s hard to believe that at least some of the mods or verifiers haven’t developed this dislike from the constant words said against him. environment is a tool to the perspective of man, after all). it being dragged out for this long is kinda crazy to me but i’m assuming it’s because they had to sift through hours of livestreams.

too lucky for it to be possible is kind of a strange argument when you really think about it, because the probability is still there, but i guess the argument exists because of the numbers being so high and damnable for the opposite party.

all we gotta do is wait, and i’m hoping it’s resolved without too much insulting and rudeness from either side :D

THERE ARE GOING TO BE AN UNGODLY AMOUNT OF SCREENSHOTS. IF YOU DON’T CARE ABOUT THE DREAM SPEEDRUN DRAMA, YOU’RE BETTER OFF SCROLLING PAST, BECAUSE IT’S A LOT OF INFORMATION THAT REQUIRES THE GENERAL CONTEXT OF THE SITUATION

hi!! so i’ve taken some screenshots of the speedrunning discord in the interest of showing the toxicity i have seen in chat. i will also be including the screenshots of mods who were actually trying to stop the conversation because it was getting way out of hand.

dream’s messages in screenshots will also be mentioned after the toxicity and mods in the beginning.

this is an analysis of the toxicity and mod response as well as an analysis on the conversation that took place with dream.

also, small note: i will be using gender neutral pronouns for everyone mentioned in this discussion aside from dream, as we are aware of what he prefers :)

i am going to state this now that every single one of these screenshots was taken on december fourteenth, 2020 somewhere between 9:30 am and 11 am in the PST timezone:

this is just blatant hatred and toxicity. i don’t have to explain it because it’s very visible.

Mango is both a verifier and mod, and is seen actively trying to end the conversation and toxicity about dream, as it was completely flooding the general chat of the discord. i’m fairly sure the night before, general was locked about 2-3 times due to the spam and toxicity.

CasseBot as you will see later on in the screenshots, is also both a verifier and mod, and the screenshot above me is definitely a statement done in poor taste and uncalled for. however, in the screenshot below, you can see them reprimanding and handing out warnings to end the conversation about dream as well as the toxicity. the statement above was unnecessary, but they were actively trying to end conversation.

now, i will be sharing screenshots of the messages dream sent to the #coding-math channel in the discord, i am apologizing in advance for the pure amount of screenshots, but i was trying to capture the entire conversation, and i left out as many side conversations unrelated to what they were talking about as i could.

i am not blurring names here as it would be very difficult to follow the conversation, and the names are relevant to who is saying what to understand when certain people are talking at once. it should also be noted that these people were very calm in their discussion to dream, and there was no yelling or blatant calling him a cheater, which is a win in my book because it points toward an actually intelligent conversation

every single one of these screenshots was taken on december fourteenth, 2020 somewhere between 9:30 am and 11 am in the PST timezone:

the conversation in the beginning starts out incredibly calm, civil, and dare i say it, wholesome, as everyone taking part in the conversation at this point was genuinely helping dream find the files he needed from his world files in the version folder

the screenshot above is a closeup of the image seen in the screenshot before it!!

i’m not sure exactly what the eclipse directory is, but if someone is willing to explain it, feel free :)

aadil is an average community member of the server (not a mod or verifier!!), and can be seen supposedly very confrontational and flippant of certain evidence, though this is due to the wording of their messages, as they quickly corrected themselves below

Kohru here mentions being able to hide different ways to do the same thing dream is being accused of, however does not send anything due to the fact that they likely don’t actually know. i state this because they use an argument a few screenshots ahead saying they could “get [their] mom to do it” which is an argument that isn’t actually professional to what they’re discussing, however this could be due to the time that these messages took place.

this is where you can see dream start to get a little frustrated through his sarcasm and wording of the statement, but he is still remaining otherwise civil in the conversation, and those having the conversation (aside from a few choice reactions to things he sent as messages including flipping off emojis and a clown emoji) with dream were also being reasonable debaters and relatively non-toxic.

ImZaJojoReference (an average community member, not a mod or verifier!!) states “evidence” claiming anything dream will put forward will be fake, but then does not produce anything else to the conversation of note that could explain why they believe this.

we’ve seen dream admit this many times that he does not have the knowledge in math nor statistics to be able to accurately debate this data, which is the reason for his hiring of staticians to help him in his own investigation and defense of himself. he states he has several, so again, i’m excited for the outcome because maybe the situation would finally get resolved!

throughout this entire conversation, i noticed that Kohru, an average community member (not a mod or verifier!!) was very confrontational in their statements to dream, though i will attribute this behavior to the timestamps of the messages, as it’s so early in the morning (in my timezone at least. this could be fundamentally flawed).

these are all the screenshots i took from the Minecraft Java Edition Speedrun discord, and i hope i grabbed enough screenshots to remain primarily unbiased to both sides of the argument, but i can conclude that most of my perceived bias will be dragged from how i brought up toxicity, and how i was glad it was being taken care of.

if you made it all the way through, thanks for listening to my rambles in between, and i hope this provides information for people who aren’t in the discord, or are generally confused on the dynamic dream holds with the speedrun community. the #general chat is mainly just completely toxic, and there are a few of dream’s defenders in there, but they get almost immediately shot down because of their like of him. this means that many of the people against dream aren’t truly listening to other sides of the argument (not including the many screenshots i provided of the more level-headed members of the discord). dream’s rebuttal will likely bring forward new information, and though a lot of it will be ignored by this community because of their almost pure hatred for the guy, it will be everyone’s decision to make up their own opinions on the subject.

taking information from many different sources and making sure you take in both sides of the story is very important to making an informed decision on the matter at hand. i hope these screenshots of the conversation made information a little more digestible due to its casual and lax nature

I AM NOT ADVOCATING FOR THE SENDING OF HATE TO THESE CHOSEN PEOPLE. I HAVE BLOCKED OUT THE NAMES OF THOSE ACTING TOXIC BECAUSE I KNOW HOW THE COMMUNITY IS. TOXICITY IS NOT A WAY TO DECIDE IF A PERSON IS BAD BECAUSE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, THOSE PEOPLE WERE UNDER 18 AND THUS CHILDREN. EVEN IF THEY WERE ADULTS, SENDING HATE AND DEATH THREATS MAKES YOU JUST AS BAD AS THEM.

if you send hate to the mods or the people having genuine discussion with dream, i don’t know what else to tell you other than you’re an idiot. because those people were pretty much the nicest people on the server.

thanks for reading, hope you have a good day!!!

THIS IS ABOUT THE SPEEDRUN DRAMA FOR DREAM. DON’T CARE? KEEP SCROLLING. I’M JUST ASKING FOR HELP.

hiiiii, so if you remember this long post i made a few days ago (not the discord screenshots), i had this idea of live-streaming myself doing several instances of 263 piglin barter trades, and then killing the same amount of blazes a few times to check for a more human error in the statistics put forth by the dream verdict. i’ve decided i will be doing that, tonight!! it’s a super late stream for me, i’ll likely be pulling an all-nighter for it, but i think it’s worth it to sate my curiosity.

i figured i’d ask the community if anyone wanted to join in on the livestream, as if people join and i’m alone doing barter trades, i feel like it would get boring really quickly. so if you want to help at all, comment or message me your discord so i can add you!!

i’m planning to go live in maybe an hour or two on my twitch channel NymicLive, so if you just want to watch, link is there! its just twitch.tv/nymiclive

Read through your post with lots of screenshots about speedrunning Discord, I appreciate that you're sharing screenshots of everyone working together/being civil as well as those of people being toxic.

Honestly I'm kind of our of arguments in favor of Dream lol. I'm really interested to see his response to the accusations against him but I'm sure it's going to be a while.

I probably won't have much more input until more info comes out, but it's been fun discussing it!

it’s been fun discussing it with you too!! i included both toxicity and civility, because i feel like only including the toxicity would shadow how the community actually is. there are plenty of people in that discord who are kind and helpful, and remain civil with people even if they don’t like them, and i feel that if i only included the toxicity, then that side would then have a bias against them.

there are definitely people in that discord who need to stop and think about the words they say to others, but those people sharing those messages in all likelihood are children, and they have grown up with social media and the toxic behaviors that come with it. this does not excuse the behavior, but it does provide the motive.

anyone sending hate, however, to these people i think need to reevaluate their life choices in all honesty, because sending those kinds of messages through a screen only proves just how uninformed or ignorant they can be on a situation.

dream did say he’d actually have a video out sometime this week about it, but this was said in the discord so i’m not completely sure. i’m very interested in his side, and i think the people who immediately condemn him while only having one side of the argument might want to take a step back and wait, because dream, with that video, will either be proving everyone against him right, or everyone against him wrong. it’s just the matter of being patient, and not getting too heated before both groups have said their piece :)

again, it was super fun discussing it with you!! all i’ve really seen lately is people choosing a side and then saying no matter what they won’t change their mind, so i’m hoping with the more conversations people have about this, the more informed people can be about this whole nightmare, and then they can make their decisions from there!

on the whole dream speedrun discourse shit, i’m curious and this is completely genuine: how many of the people arguing the math have experience with this specific type of statistical analysis? i don’t have any because i’m not good at math, but how many people arguing the math have genuine experience and understanding of the math? like, degrees or a passing of a class that specialized in this math?

because all i’ve been seeing in the discord is people regurgitating numbers that they don’t seem to actively understand as they never offer why they think the math is correct or a description of how the math actually works. a lot of them just throw around the phrase binomial distribution (even though i’ve seen from many people that supposedly the situation didn’t even qualify for that specific formula?).

i just find it very hard to believe that every single person in the speedrun discord suddenly had a degree in stats or understands it to the capability of being able to say that they’re right or wrong. like, i understand that there’s probably a few people, but it’s impossible to separate them from the piggy-backers, and i think personally that it weakens their words and claimability when they have those same uneducated people spouting things that they don’t understand because they think it’s right solely due to the fact that it’s what the majority of the discord believes.

i’m not trying to be rude or confrontational, it just seems to me that there’s a lot we can’t decipher of the debate because there’s no way everyone there has that kind of experience (case and point, myself, and several others that i’ve seen as the chat speeds by (also dream himself i suppose, as he did hire someone to do the math for him)).

this is seriously a genuine question though.

Have you seen Dreams speedrun response video? I haven't watched it yet but I probably will sometime today. I'm kind of surprised how fast it came out and interested to see his argument.

i have watched his response!! i don’t understand the math that went behind his entire rebuttal, but dream did seem at least well informed of the information and data given to him by his hired statistician.

(another important thing to note!! dream did not do this math himself, and as he stated, he does not understand this math. if the statistician managed to screw up like some believe, dream would not be able to tell, so i don’t think it would be right to get mad at him when he was relying on a person he was under the impression was qualified, and someone he paid!)

because i don’t understand what the hell the math was about, i like to stick to the fact that he uploaded the entire save file of the game that he uploaded to google drive the day he did the run, and the fact that he made his fabric jar also completely available with modification dates revealing no change after their upload.

i know a big argument is that someone can change the modification date of these files apparently pretty easily, but i googled how to do it and it seemed to be a lot more work than they made it out to be with having to download a bunch of extra executables.

my opinion on the matter is that i believe dream did not cheat, and i am basing this off of my own understanding of the data. if someone does not believe the same as me, i think that’s completely fine, as the data will never give us a definitive. the only person who will ever know dream cheated is dream himself. statistics can give an accurate guess and hypothesis, but in this situation we will never truly know if he cheated or not.

i’d like to be able to trust what dream says, and who knows, maybe it’ll come out that he did cheat (like he’ll apologize or something) and i’ll look like an idiot, but i’d rather look like an idiot than condemn a guy’s reputation over a type of data point that doesn’t offer a complete answer.

i hope you enjoy the video at least a little bit though! he sticks in a few jokes to calm the tension surrounding the topic, so 3am me was at least pleased :D