Clash Of Kings - Tumblr Posts
What Was Stannis' Plan for the Blackwater?
I’ve been thinking on what the point of the Battle of the Blackwater (henceforth BotB) was strategically for Stannis. And I'd argue it was to gain the Reach to his side.
I will not argue the BotB was not a huge series of fuckups on Stannis’ part. Even so there was a point. Winning that battle was possible and a reasonable goal. I think, in Stannis thinking, the problem would have been the aftermath. He'd be stuck with a wounded army, an at least partially damaged fleet and an entire city to feed. Somehow this was a desirable goal. In my opinion the victory is what makes that battle desirable because the battle wasn't just to take the capital (although that's very important) but to gain the capital to get the Reach to join him. I think the cart before the horse analogy works here.
As Rhaenyra I, Daemon Blackfyre, Robb Stark and Robert Baratheon prove, winning battles brings allies because they see your strength. The blackwater would have been Stannis' Whispering Woods or Summerhal, like how Rhaenyra capturing KL gave her legitimacy.
It's same reason as fighting the ironborn in the north gives him allies in ADWD. In westeros winning proves strength. In ACOK the Stormlords and Reacherlords he gets from Renly's death were all he was gonna get at that point. He needs more men to win the entire kingdom, and the Vale won't fight but the Reach might. With Tywin distracted by Robb Stark at Harrenhal. Stannis knows Tywin could come down from Harrenhal to defend KL and he knows that the Tyrell forces are sitting at Bitterbridge in a leadership crisis. It was is the perfect time to strike while KL was undefended and win an *almost certain* battle to prove himself. When I say almost certain remember BotB is 20,000 of Stannis' trained soldiers against mostly a few thousand gold cloaks and a small (in comparison) number of knights.
By taking KL Stannis eliminates his rival claimant (Joffrey) and proves he should be followed as a victorious king. Specifically to the Tyrells who have the sheer military numbers to win the war as well as food supplies for KL. If the Stannis won faster the battle might've solved all of the problems it would cause. Namely supplying a city and military casualties.